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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.