Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.