NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. Yet, a great deal more is at stake, including the coveted #1 rankings in both conferences and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have crafted a dramatic ending, with the final two play-off positions to be decided in two direct head-to-head matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will secure the #4 spot and a home game in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and the Chargers are set as wildcard teams.
The Texans require a victory coupled with a Jacksonville loss to jump from fifth to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a setback could pave the way for the Patriots or Jacksonville to snatch it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still claim the division even with a defeat, contingent on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The highlight, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC receives a crucial bye week and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
On the Wild Card round, the remaining six qualified teams face off: the second seed hosts the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
In the Divisional Round, the top seeds join the fray, hosting the lowest remaining seed. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the highest seed, underscoring the critical importance of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter rivalry comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot on the line, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore struggled early but are still in contention. Player availability could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's signal-caller their MVP QB is questionable with a back injury.
Star rusher Derrick Henry might emerge as the x-factor for the Ravens in what promises to be a physical, defensive battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks travels to San Francisco. The victorious team secures the NFC's top seed and the road to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This game features an high-powered San Francisco attack against a stingy Seattle defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, the Seahawks' defense is ranked among the best in the NFL.
Seattle QB their passer must avoid costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. The team that comes out on top earns a massive edge for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed chances to secure the division.
The Panthers it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is trickier. Even with a victory, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints game to steal the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A Patriots win coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to New England.
Jacksonville are the dark horse. They need a triumph and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)